what’s Liverpool chance?


Being a Liverpool fan, I say we shot ourselves in the foot for not bagging the 4 points in the recent matches against the hamsters ( Birmingham and Fulham) having drew in both matches. Otherwise, we would in driving seat by now, having 2 points clear above Spurs, albeit with a game in hand. As a matter of fact, we have lost too many points throughout the whole season, that honestly speaking, to clinch a 4th spot,  not only is an impossible task, it’s also not what we deserved.

Nevertheless, putting on the analytical hat, here’s my analysis of what could happen, ideal and yet realistic.

Spurs has 3 games remaining, against Bolton (Home) ,  City (Away) and finally Burnley (Away)

Manchester City has 3 games remaining too, against Aston Villa (Home), Spurs (Home), and finally West Ham (Away)

Aston Villa has 2 games remaining, just like us, and they will be playing against City (Away) and Blackburn (Home)

We have to play Chelsea at home, and wrapping the season by playing against Hull away.

With soccer, anything is possible, but if we consider just a pragmatic idea situation as follow

  • Spurs draw with Bolton and  Man City, beat Burnley. Gains5 points as a result, aggregating a final total of 69 points.
  • City draw with Villa and Spurs, beat West Ham. Gains 5 points in total, aggregating a final total of 68 points.
  • Villa draw with City, and draw Blackburn. Gain 4 points in total, aggregating a final total of 68 points.
  • We win the rest of our 2 matches, against Chelsea and Hull, and we have a final aggregated points of 68.

So you see, Spurs is the likely winner of the last Champions league spot.  It’s hard to imagine Spurs dropping points against Burnley, but hopefully they do against Bolton. If they win this coming weekend match against Bolton, then its a lost cause for us.

For us to win against Chelsea, it’s also an unimaginable task, although considering that we have won the double against them in previous season.

So cross our fingers and toes, and may the best team gets the coveted spot.

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4 thoughts on “what’s Liverpool chance?

  1. zen says:

    oh well, prediction didn’t come true.

    Spurs beat Bolton and City beat Villa.

    Which means now Spurs have 67 points, City has 66 points, and they both have two more games to play.

    Villa is out of running now, since the maximum points they can get now is 67, and their goal difference is inferior to Spurs, unless Spurs lose all the remaining 2 matches with more than 10 goals (and City and Liverpool couldn’t accumulate more than 67 points).

    So lets assume we would still be able to beat Chelsea tomorrow. That gives us 65 points.

    City must not get more than 2 points, and Spurs must not get more than 1 points, from the two matches. That means City needs to draw with Spurs and West Ham, while Spurs must draw with City, and lose to Burnley. No other possible permutation.

    What is that possibility? Almost close to 0.

  2. zen says:

    just goes to show that I’m not a good forecaster. So by end of last week, Liverpool has lost 2-0 to Chelsea, gifted by our captain and vice captain. So whatever result Spurs or City get at the end of the day, becomes immaterial now, at least from our point of view.

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